Bitcoin tests key levels near $95K as regulatory tailwinds emerge

• Bitcoin holds steady above $93,000, showing resilience after earlier correction.
• US Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw massive $1.2B+ weekly inflow (“Pac-Man mode”), signaling strong institutional demand.
• US Federal Reserve joined OCC/FDIC in withdrawing previous restrictive crypto guidance for banks.

Bitcoin continues to demonstrate significant resilience, maintaining levels above the crucial $93,000 mark after weathering a notable correction earlier this year.

This stability is underpinned by a confluence of factors, including surging institutional interest evidenced by record ETF inflows, increasingly bullish long-term price predictions, and a potentially easing regulatory landscape.

A primary driver of the recent strength has been the remarkable influx of capital into US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

These investment vehicles experienced substantial demand this week, attracting nearly $1.3 billion in net inflows, according to data from SoSoValue.

Tuesday alone saw inflows nearing the $1 billion mark, representing the strongest single day since mid-January.

This brings the total assets under management across these spot Bitcoin ETFs to an impressive $103 billion.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continues to lead the pack, accumulating $2.7 billion year-to-date, including $346 million just last week.

Observing the broad participation across ten of the eleven available funds, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas described the activity vividly, stating the ETFs had entered “Pac-Man mode.”

This widespread buying across multiple providers, rather than concentration in just one or two, suggests a broadening base of institutional conviction.

The total value traded across all spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $496 million, reflecting significant market activity.

Lofty projections: ARK Invest eyes $2.4 million bitcoin

Fueling longer-term optimism, prominent investment firm ARK Invest recently made headlines by significantly raising its 2030 price targets for Bitcoin.

Citing institutional investment as a primary catalyst, ARK lifted its “bull case” scenario from $1.5 million to a striking $2.4 million per Bitcoin by the decade’s end.

The firm also increased its “base” case to $1.2 million and its “bear” case to $500,000.

ARK research analyst David Puell explained the rationale, estimating Bitcoin could achieve a 6.5% penetration rate within the massive $200 trillion global financial system in their most optimistic scenario.

Furthermore, the firm’s model incorporates Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as “digital gold,” projecting it could capture up to 60% of gold’s approximately $18 trillion market capitalization.

Technical picture: holding support, eyeing breakout

From a technical analysis perspective, maintaining current levels is seen as critical.

Analysts emphasize the importance of Bitcoin holding support above the $93,500 zone to avoid potential downward pressure.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggested BTC needs to consolidate above this level, ideally securing a weekly close above it, to “resynchronize with the former Reaccumulation range.”

Bitcoin has demonstrated its ability to trade above this mark this week, potentially reflecting its appeal as a safe haven amid ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties.

Sustaining this support could pave the way for a retest of the $100,000 barrier and potentially new all-time highs, according to expert consensus.

Further technical indicators point towards underlying market strength.

The amount of Bitcoin supply held in profit has reportedly surpassed the 16.7 million BTC “threshold of optimism.”

Historical analysis suggests that when Bitcoin consistently holds above this zone (as seen in 2016, 2020, and 2024), significant price appreciation often follows within months.

Traders like CrediBULL Crypto are looking for “one more leg on the lower timeframes” to confirm the breakout, suggesting momentum could potentially carry prices towards the $150,000 region if sustained.

Regulatory winds shifting? Fed withdraws guidance

Adding a potential tailwind, US banking regulators, including the Federal Reserve, recently took steps to withdraw previous crypto-specific guidance issued to banks in 2022 and 2023.

These earlier notices had often required pre-approvals for banks engaging in crypto activities and highlighted perceived risks.

By joining the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) in rescinding this guidance, the Fed stated the move aims to ensure its “expectations remain aligned with evolving risks and further support innovation in the banking system.”

While not creating new rules, this withdrawal effectively places decisions on crypto engagement more firmly in the hands of bank managers and compliance teams, pending potential future legislation from Congress.

Fed officials noted they “will instead monitor banks’ crypto-asset activities through the normal supervisory process,” potentially signaling a less prescriptive regulatory posture from these key agencies.

The combination of strong institutional inflows, ambitious long-term outlooks, supportive technicals, and a potentially less restrictive regulatory environment paints a compelling picture for Bitcoin as it holds key levels and eyes its next potential move higher.